The weather model that beats website and app forecasts
They update the forecast. We correct it. See exactly where prediction markets have it wrong.
Model Accuracy — High Temperature Predictions
Sardine Weather vs the government's official forecast (NOAA) across — predictions in — cities. Accuracy improves throughout the day as more weather station data arrives, peaking after the daily high is recorded.
These results are for daily high temperature contracts on prediction markets. The model uses the government forecast as a starting point, then applies bias correction from 300+ days of historical error data for each city.
What does 63% accuracy mean for your returns?
$100 starting balance · 5% flat bet per trade · 100 simulated trades
Sardine
$100.00
+0.0%
NOAA-Based (Most Apps)
$100.00
+0.0%
Sardine
Win rate 63%
Avg contract $0.45
Pays out $1.00
NOAA-Based
Win rate 48%
Avg contract $0.45
Pays out $1.00
+$829.81
Sardine advantage
Sardine: +879.2%
NOAA: +49.4%
TRADE 0/100
Simulated backtest · Past performance does not guarantee future results · Sardine Weather provides data analysis tools, not financial advice
How it works
Watch how Sardine Weather finds edge in prediction market temperature contracts
One good signal pays for itself
A single 18¢ edge at $5/contract covers a month of Basic. Start free, upgrade when the math makes sense.
🚀 Early Access — First 100 beta users get 2 months of Pro free. Only 48 spots remaining.
Free
See what the model sees.
- NOAA forecast + current temp
- Market bucket prices
- 10-minute data delay
- All 19 cities
Basic
Unlock fair value and signals for every contract.
- Everything in Free
- Fair value per bucket
- NOAA deviation score
- Buy/sell signals
- 5-minute data refresh
Pro
Full model. Real-time data. Nothing held back.
- Everything in Basic
- Confidence tiers (HIGH / MED / LOW)
- Position sizing & ROI
- Station bias history
- Signal alerts (email + webhook)
- Real-time data
Use code BETA100 for 2 months free
Enterprise
For teams and power users.
- Everything in Pro
- Full API access
- Historical data export (CSV/Excel)
- Performance analytics
- Custom model monitoring
- Priority support
- SLA guarantee
Annual billing available — save 17% (2 months free).
Stop guessing. Win with real math and the best weather model.
The edge is there before the close. Be ready for it.
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